Betstar's Week 4 NFL Betting Preview
So as the rain buckets down here in Melbourne on AFL Grand Final day, the Hawks are on everybody’s lips here in the Betstar office – the Sea
Hawks that is! We are still coming to grips with that horrible piece of refereeing last week, but can console ourselves with the reasoning that at least it got the Foot Locker guys back in the stores and we have the real deal back officiating the games!
49ERS JET OUT TO NEW YORK
With both sides sitting at 2-1, this is another game that is being classified as ‘season defining’, despite it being just Week 4 of the regular season. Rewind to this time last week, and the 9ers were being bandied about as near-certs for the NFC Conference. But their shock loss to the unfancied Vikings from Minnesota has brought them back to earth with a nice, big thud.
The Jets, on the other hand, know that their Division is wide open with the Patriots faltering of late. The Jets have proven that they can win ugly, scraping out a 23-20 win against a Dolphins side that tried hard but lacked class. Mark Sanchez has been underwhelming in the past 2 matches, completing barely over a 50% completion rate on passes.
The likely loss of Isaac Sopoaga is a big blow for the 49ers, and there is no question that they are under the pump. But 49ers Head Coach Jim Harbaugh is famous for getting his to team to focus week by week, and to respond when they have been disappointing.
In 2011, they responded with 16+ point victories after each of their three losses, and we think that they will be too strong here. In saying that, don’t expect a shootout. We are expecting plenty of punts and safe tactical moves in the one!
We like the 49ers at the minus (4), paying $1.97, or if you can’t split them then the Under 41.5 @ $1.89 looks a good bet too.
Click here to see our 49ers v Jets market.
HOW WILL THE PACKERS RESPOND TO ‘GOLDEN TATE GATE’?
The Saints are really struggling in the absence of Sean Peyton, and the last thing that they needed was to come up against an angry Packers team. They absolutely cannot afford a loss against another NFC team; the implications to their playoff aspirations would be astronomical.
In a game that will be shown live on ONE HD, the Saints will be desperate to open their account after cocking up big-time against the Chiefs last week. They held an 11 point lead heading into the last quarter, but stumbled on both offense and defense and ended up losing by 3.
Drew Brees is still a fantastic leader, so don’t expect a one sided blow out – both sides will score heavily. Wide Receiver Greg Jennings’ groin has caused him to struggle so far, but is apparently nearly 100%, so look for him to have a big influence on this game.
The expectations have been lowered mightily for both teams, but there is simply too much talent here for either side to go down without a fight.
We like the over market here, currently paying $1.91 for 53.0 points.
Click here to see our Packers v Saints market.
MCBRIAR’S EAGLES TO SOAR
Mat McBriar has been re-signed by the Eagles after being cut just a month ago, and is expected to feature straight away as the NFC East has its first intra-divisional game since opening night.
These teams split last year’s meetings, and the Eagles defense stacks up well against the reigning champions. They have the third-ranked pass defence in the whole league, which really puts the pressure on Eli to either be super accurate, or the Giants to be inventive. The Eagles will be rushing him hard, looking for early sacks; Eli will be looking for the big man Martellus Bennett, who has averaged 5 catches yet still says he is capable of more.
This game is almost a coin flip; it’s essentially pick ‘em. Michael Vick has had some brilliant games against the Giants, but he has also had some shockers. LeSean McCoy needs to be huge, but we can’t help but like New York. The Giants thrive as underdogs, and we think that $2.10 represents very good market value.
Click here to see our Giants v Eagles market.
SUPER BOWL FUTURES MARKET – THE WEEK’S MOVEMENT
The Texans and 49ers have swapped the top two places following the Vikings big win last week, with Houston coming in from $7.50 to $6.50 The Ravens move into single figures for the first time this season, from $15.00 into $9.5, while the Packers at $9 and Patriots ($9.50) are also entrenched firmly within the top 5.
The Giants convincing victory over Carolina sees them $29 into $17, the shortest that they have been all year. Two undefeated sides, Atlanta and Arizona, are shortening by the week – the Falcons from $14.00 to $11.00, and the Cardinals more than halving in price from $81.00 to $26.00. The Seahawks contentious victory sees them $41 into $29.00
There are some teams who are lengthening significantly as well though, with the Broncos ($26) and Eagles ($26) both over the twenty dollar mark for the first time this year. The Saints are now $67, making a mockery of any punters who got on them preseason, and Browns fans see them longer than any team has been all year – entirely friendless at $501.00
Click here to see our Super Bowl market.
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